PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal may see a reduction in its daily vessel movements to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new head. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her position on September 7 and expressed concerns about El Niño impacting reservoir levels. The canal depends on freshwater from lakes fed by rainfall to operate its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already initiated phased capacity reductions following below-average rainfall in the watershed area.
From September 3, the canal offered nine daily Neopanamax slots along with 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 available openings. Starting September 15, the number of Panamax slots will decrease to 23, reducing the combined daily capacity to 32. These adjustments stem from diminished rainfall during Panama’s wet season and decreased inflows into the canal’s watershed. Measures to conserve water and tighten booking policies are in effect, with ongoing monitoring of Gatun Lake and other water sources.
During fiscal year 2026, the canal averaged 35 daily transits up to June 30, based on official operational data. Between October and June, it recorded 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. However, these figures predate the recent deterioration in rainfall, which has resulted in stricter operational limits. The canal, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is a vital route for container ships, energy cargo, bulk commodities, and other freight.
Water shortages constrain transit capacity
The operation of canal locks depends on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower vessels during transit. Reservoir levels directly influence the number of ships that can traverse the waterway during extended dry spells. In the severe drought of 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake levels fell to historic lows. As rainfall improved and conservation measures were implemented, capacity increased again, helping to stabilize water supplies for both canal operations and public consumption.
In addition to operational adjustments, the canal has modified vessel draft restrictions as part of its water management efforts. On September 4, officials postponed the planned reduction of the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains effective after reviewing Gatun Lake levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits are critical because they determine how deeply ships can sit in the water, especially for vessels carrying heavier loads.
Booking procedures shift amid shrinking capacity
As capacity becomes more limited, the canal has revised its booking and auction processes. Slots are now grouped by cargo type in daily auctions, including gas carriers, bulk vessels, container ships, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, full container ships with higher capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities have encouraged vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as limited capacity can lead to longer waiting times. Reserving a transit slot remains the only guaranteed way to secure a specific transit date.
A further reduction to 29 ships per day has not been ordered but remains a possibility for February or March if dry conditions continue. The canal’s experts continue to monitor rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing additional operational restrictions. The canal is also progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project to boost long-term water storage capacity. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader strategy to ensure adequate water supply for canal operations and over half of the country’s population.